This past year, copper rallied through a series of geopolitical shocks, flirted with supply deficits, and held a stronger price floor than most analysts expected. Lithium, nickel, cobalt, graphite, and rare earths each had their own turbulence, but the broader trend was the same. Demand kept rising, investment slowed, and supply chains tightened.

What stood out to me is how much this shift has changed the way investors look at copper and the broader group of minerals that power electrification, AI infrastructure, and grid expansion. These materials are no longer treated as separate stories; they move together.

The International Energy Agency says the concentration of the critical-minerals supply chain will tighten further in 2026. Canada, China, and Indonesia now account for most of the refining capacity for copper, lithium, nickel, cobalt, graphite, and rare earths, controlling 86% of global output compared with 82% in 2020.

“That kind of concentration shapes everything from pricing to policy,” said Ryan Iverson, Portfolio Manager at CEM Partner’s Fund. We’re entering an era where metal supply is becoming a national-interest issue. Investors can’t look at copper or lithium in isolation anymore. The whole basket matters, and the companies that understand that are the ones creating durable value,” he said.

The numbers from IEA’s latest Global Critical Minerals Outlook, support this view.

The agency expects global copper demand to climb about 30% by 2040, while mined supply from currently announced projects is projected to fall short by roughly the same amount around 2035. Analysts surveyed by Reuters see refined copper averaging about US$10,500 a tonne next year, supported by firm demand and tightening supply. The International Copper Study Group adds to that outlook by projecting a deficit of roughly 150,000 tonnes in 2026, a sharp turn from the small surplus expected in 2025. At the same time, lithium demand is forecasted to grow fivefold by 2040 and nickel requirements for batteries are expected to double. Cobalt consumption is set to climb 50-60%. Graphite remains almost entirely concentrated in China. Rare earths continue to track policy risk around magnet production.

Taken together, the story for 2026 is clear for this sector. Copper sits at the centre of a minerals-intensive decade, and the tightness around it is echoed across the rest of the critical metals that keep the energy and technology systems running.

What's Driving This?

• Electrification: Electricity networks need vast amounts of copper and aluminium. Permanent magnets for EVs and wind turbines rely heavily on rare earth elements such as neodymium, praseodymium, and dysprosium. Batteries require lithium, nickel, cobalt, graphite, and manganese. Each of those supply chains faces multi-year investment gaps.
• AI & Digital Infrastructure: High-purity silicon, gallium, indium, and advanced alloys are essential for chips and power electronics. The IEA report notes that the explosion of AI computing workloads links critical minerals directly to national technology competitiveness.
• Industrial Re-Shoring: The U.S. Geological Survey just added copper and silver to the national critical minerals list this year, alongside uranium, rhenium, silicon, and potash, signalling a major shift in defence and supply-chain policy.
• Slowing Investment: Global investment in critical-mineral mining grew only 5% in 2024, down sharply from 14% in 2023. Exploration spending plateaued after rising steadily for three years. Lithium specialists were hit hardest and nickel projects outside Indonesia saw financing challenges.
• Imminent Supply Gaps: The IEA’s analysis shows severe deficits emerging for copper and lithium by 2035, even if every currently announced project comes online. Copper supply will miss demand by 30%, lithium by 40%, under the Stated Policies Scenario of the International Energy Agency’s core frameworks.

Against this backdrop, we look at three companies that earned Top Pick and Honourable Mention recognition at CEM Events this year. They stood out because they match what this market now rewards. Each one shows either strong geology, clear permitting progress, or strategic positioning in a sector that is getting tighter and more politicized by the month.

Faraday Copper Corp.

Faraday Copper (TSX: FDY) stands out as one of the most compelling American development stories in the copper space. The company is advancing Copper Creek in Arizona, a district-scale system that fits neatly into the macro mineral trends shaping 2026.

The company has secured full U.S. Bureau of Land Management approval for 67 drill pads and launched a 40,000-metre program targeting oxide zones and new discovery areas across a 78-square-kilometre land package. Faraday has also delivered near-surface breccia intercepts that speak to scale and continuity, including broad mineralized intervals and new breccia discoveries that extend the system.

“Faraday is giving investors scale in a safe jurisdiction at a time when the market is short of both. That combination is rare, and it explains why the company has kept building momentum through a tough year,” said Iverson.

On the financial front, Faraday has strengthened its balance sheet. Two financings this year raised close to $48 million, bringing its cash position to about $46 million at the end of the third quarter.

As Faraday enters 2026 well-funded for a catalyst-rich exploration cycle, it is positioned to deliver the kind of technical progress and jurisdictional certainty investors are prioritizing.

Midnight Sun Mining Corp.

Midnight Sun’s (TSXV: MMA) Solwezi Project in Zambia sits beside Kansanshi, Africa’s largest copper mine, and anchors the company in a jurisdiction where copper, cobalt, and other battery metals occur together. That matters in a market where multi-mineral supply chains are becoming more integrated and where new discoveries are increasingly scarce.

With nearly 1.5 kilometres of mineralized strike already defined and five drill rigs turning, Midnight Sun’s discovery footprint continues to expand. Geophysical alignment with soil anomalies and structural models gives the program a high degree of targeting confidence.

For investors, Solwezi represents exposure to a large, high-grade system in the heart of the second-largest copper belt on Earth. Zambia’s renewed permitting stability and growing role in critical-minerals supply strengthen the investment case further.

As Iverson puts it, “You cannot ignore a project that keeps hitting grade in one of the world’s most productive copper districts. Midnight Sun combines location, geology, and upside in a way that lines up with where the sector is heading.”

Midnight Sun enters 2026 with real momentum. The company is adding data quickly, expanding the strike length and stacking catalysts in a region that still has the power to shift the global copper equation.

Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd.

Northern Dynasty’s (TSX: NDM) Pebble Project sits at the centre of America’s resource-security conversation for a simple reason. Few deposits in the United States, or anywhere else, match its size, metal mix or long-term strategic relevance. Pebble contains 6.5 billion tonnes of measured and indicated resources and another 4.5 billion tonnes inferred, holding 53 billion pounds of copper, 54 million ounces of gold and 2.8 billion pounds of molybdenum, with the system still open at depth and to the east.

The project’s 2023 PEA outlines a 20-year, 180,000-tonne-per-day open-pit operation. It forecasts production of 6.4 billion pounds of copper and 7.4 million ounces of gold over the mine life, supported by infrastructure outsourcing and metal streaming that reduce upfront capital needs. Expansion scenarios add even more optionality, pushing Pebble into the realm of multi-generation supply and reinforcing its strategic weight as U.S. copper, gold, molybdenum, and silver needs accelerate.

“Pebble is one of those rare assets that doesn’t just fit a narrative, it shapes it. If the United States is serious about long-term supply security, projects of this scale can’t be left off the table,” said Iverson.

Positioning for a Critical Minerals-Intensive 2026

The past year showed that copper and the wider critical-minerals basket have become central to the energy story as demand across electrification, AI infrastructure, and grid renewal keeps rising.

In this environment, investors are leaning toward companies that offer scale, jurisdictional strength, and a clear path to meaningful catalysts. Faraday Copper brings U.S.-based development momentum at a time when domestic supply matters. Midnight Sun offers discovery potential in one of the few regions capable of shifting the global copper equation. Northern Dynasty holds a multi-metal system that speaks directly to America’s long-term resource security.

For investors watching this space, the opportunity lies in recognizing that critical metals no longer move on separate tracks. They rise and tighten together, and the companies that can advance real assets in this environment are the ones positioned to lead the next cycle.

Next Week in the Investor Breakout Newsletter...

We’ll unpack the year’s developments in uranium and energy transition metals and explore what the latest projections in this sector mean for investors in 2026.

Weekly Insight

Each week, CEM Partner and Portfolio Manager Ryan Iverson spotlights the ideas and companies sparking investor interest from emerging growth stories to the Top Picks featured across CEM’s Capital Events. This series brings real insights from the innovators shaping tomorrow’s markets and reveals where investors are finding the next breakout opportunities.

Warm Regards and Happy Investing,
Fabian Dawson