Luca Mining’s Polymetallic Power Play Rides the Perfect Storm of Opportunity as Gold Breaks New Highs

• After a record year, Luca is projected to produce 80,000–100,000 gold-equivalent ounces in 2025, generating USD $30–40 million in free cash flow from its two fully operational polymetallic mines in Mexico.
• Luca has invested $500M in infrastructure, significantly de-risking operations and eliminating the need for major capital expenditures while management focuses on paying down debt.
• With both mines remaining largely unexplored and significant potential for new discoveries, Luca offers investors substantial upside potential beyond its current production profile.

“We think like operators, not promoters … What we have is the ability to deliver returns today, not years down the road”​
 —  Dan Barnholden, CEO Luca Mining Corp.

A perfect storm of geopolitical tension, economic uncertainty, and global liquidity has ignited an unprecedented rally in gold, setting the stage for what many are calling a new golden era for miners.

Global financial powerhouses like UBS, Goldman Sachs, and JP Morgan are raising their forecasts, with some calling for gold to breach $4,000/oz in 2025.

And investors are responding in kind.

After years of outflows, gold mining stocks are once again drawing capital, with over $555 million in net inflows to gold miner funds as of March 2025 alone, reports Lipper Data.

This renewed momentum is rewarding miners who are not only in production but who can scale — and Luca Mining Corp. (TSXV: LUCA) is one of the few juniors in that category.

With two fully owned, cash-flowing polymetallic mines in Mexico — Campo Morado and Tahuehueto, Luca is producing the metals that matter most today: gold, silver, copper, zinc, and lead. But the standout driver, without question, is gold.

After a record year producing 57,487 gold-equivalent ounces (AuEq) in 2024, Luca is now forecast to produce between 80,000 and 100,000 AuEq ounces in 2025, with projected free cash flow of US$30–40 million.

That production profile puts Luca squarely in the path of gold’s continued rally.

With approximately 50% of its revenue tied to precious metals, the company offers direct exposure to gold, a safe-haven asset that continues to outperform in today’s inflationary environment.

“Every move in the gold price goes straight to our bottom line. And unlike most juniors, we’re not funding growth with dilution, we’re doing it with cash flow …What we have is the ability to deliver returns today, not years down the road,”​ says Luca CEO Dan Barnholden.

While most juniors are still chasing long-term promises, Luca is already executing and it showed at the 2025 CEM Scottsdale Capital Event, where the company was recognized as a Top Pick for its blend of operational results, exploration catalysts, and disciplined growth strategy.

At its flagship property Campo Morado, Luca is forecasting to produce between 54,000 and 64,000 gold-equivalent ounces (AuEq) in 2025. This cash engine for Luca, located in Guerrero State, is firing on all cylinders, operating at over 2,000 tpd, anchored by strong output in zinc, copper, and gold.

What makes Campo Morado stand out isn’t just scale — it’s execution. Luca launched the Campo Morado Improvement Program in partnership with Ausenco, enhancing metal recoveries and concentrate quality through metallurgical upgrades, including a new copper-lead separation circuit. A third concentrate is expected to come online in 2025, further increasing payability and revenue streams​.

Exploration, dormant for over a decade, has also resumed with a 5,000m program that has already uncovered a new gold-silver-zinc zone below the mine’s main ore body​.

“Campo Morado represents about three-quarters of our value today and it still has huge room to grow,” says Barnholden​.

Tahuehueto, Luca Mining’s second producing asset, reached commercial production in Q1 2025 and is ramping steadily toward its 1,000 tpd capacity. This mine is expected to deliver between 31,000 and 36,000 gold-equivalent ounces in 2025.

Strategically located in Durango’s prolific Sierra Madre belt, Tahuehueto is a high-grade epithermal system with over a dozen mapped veins and district-scale upside across its 75 km² land package.

Early exploration results include the discovery of a geological sweet spot within the property’s El Creston vein system — a brecciated high-grade gold zone that signals strong potential for low-cost, high-margin ounces in a concentrated area.

 “About 90% of the resource base at Tahuehueto remains unexplored,” says Barnholden​, adding Luca has barely begun to tap the potential of this system.

"It has been an extraordinary year for Luca. We have transformed our operations, transformed our finances, and have embarked on exciting, high impact exploration at both of our mines.”

The company has also aggressively cut its debt from $18 million to $9 million, with a goal of being debt-free by mid-2026.

“Every dollar not going to interest is a dollar going toward optimization, exploration, or growth. We'd rather return capital to shareholders than hand it to lenders,” says Barnholden​.

What sets Luca apart from other juniors isn’t just the rocks — it’s the strategy.

With $500 million in infrastructure already in place, both operations are de-risked. That, combined with strong margins and rising gold prices, means Luca doesn’t need to dilute shareholders to grow.

“We think like operators, not promoters,” says Barnholden. “Optimization, strategic exploration, availability, and metallurgy improvements … those are the drivers that create real shareholder value.”​

And while Luca is squarely focused on organic growth, it’s also laying the groundwork for strategic M&A. The company recently appointed Adam Melnyk, a corporate development and finance expert as VP of Corporate Development, with a mandate to identify accretive targets.

“We’re already seeing actionable opportunities — some near our current assets, some with broader upside,” Barnholden notes​.

Given its performance and trajectory, analyst coverage on Luca has been bullish. Maxim Group projects Luca will see a 38% revenue growth and 152% EBITDA growth over two years​. EBITDA margins are expected to rise from 6.5% in 2024 to 20.9% in 2026, said Maxim.

Ventum Capital Markets calls 2025 a “turning point” for Luca, noting its 28.5% FCF/EV (Free Cash Flow to Enterprise Value) yield and “diversified, cash-rich platform that can support both production growth and exploration”​.

For investors seeking exposure to both precious and critical metals that align with global demand and companies that can deliver near-term cash flow while scaling for the future, Luca Mining stands out. It is capturing value from two operating mines, improving margins every quarter, and unlocking resource growth that’s already within reach.

“This isn’t a hope story,” says Barnholden. “It’s a cash-flow story — and we’re just getting started.”​

A Top Pick in Scottsdale

Stock Information TSXV: LUCA

1. As of market open on Tuesday, April 29 2025
2. As of market open on Monday, April 14 2025 after being selected as a Top Pick at the CEM Scottsdale Capital Event

Following Luca Mining’s selection as a Top Pick at the Scottsdale Capital Event, I caught up with CEO Dan Barnholden to discuss the company’s accelerating cash flow, exploration upside, and its growing presence as a rising mid-tier polymetallic producer in Mexico.

With gold at all-time highs, how is Luca positioned to take advantage of current market conditions?

“Gold has been the single best-performing asset of the first four months of the year, and that’s having a direct impact on our margins. At Luca, we’re already in production, not years away so every uptick in the gold price translates into real cash flow. In 2024, we produced a record 57,487 gold-equivalent ounces, and in 2025 we’re guiding between 80,000 and 100,000 ounces, with projected free cash flow between $30 million and $40 million.

These strong margins are allowing us to reinvest in mine optimization, accelerate debt reduction, which we've already cut in half from $18 million to $9 million … We are doing all of this without raising equity. That’s a critical differentiator for investors looking for near-term return on capital.”

Exploration hasn’t been a focus at Luca in the past, what’s changed?

“Neither Campo Morado nor Tahuehueto had seen meaningful exploration for over a decade not because of lack of potential, but simply a lack of capital. That’s changed. In 2024, we launched a 5,000-metre drill program across both properties, and we’ve brought in strong expertise to lead a full team. Already, we’ve discovered a new gold-silver-zinc zone below the main G-9 ore body at Campo Morado, and at Tahuehueto we’ve intersected a high-grade brecciated gold zone in the El Creston vein system. With over 90% of the resource base still unexplored, we see exploration as a major lever for organic growth, not just extending mine life, but potentially unlocking district-scale opportunities. For a company like ours, which is already in production, this kind of blue-sky upside is rare.”

What are Luca’s biggest near-term catalysts over the next two years?

“We’ve got multiple levers pulling at once. First, we’re continuing to ramp up both mines. Campo Morado is now consistently above 2,000 tpd, and Tahuehueto is averaging 820 tpd, with the target of 1,000 tpd within reach. Second, we’re advancing the Campo Morado Improvement Project, which is focused on improving metal recoveries and concentrate payability, including the commissioning of a new copper-lead separation circuit that will enhance both revenue and margins.

Third, we’re maintaining discipline on the financial side. Our AISC is already trending down, and with $500 million in infrastructure in place, our growth doesn’t require massive new capital outlay. Finally, we’ve hired a dedicated M&A lead and are actively evaluating opportunities that fit our skillset and footprint in Mexico. These aren’t speculative … they’re actionable. The vision is clear: grow to 200,000 gold-equivalent ounces annually and establish Luca as a leading mid-tier producer.”

Our View

• Cash Flow Now, Not Later
  In a sector crowded with pre-revenue juniors, Luca Mining is generating real returns today. With record 2024 production of 57,487 AuEq ounces and 2025 guidance of up to 100,000 ounces, Luca is forecasting US$30–40 million in free cash flow this year. With gold prices at record highs and no need for equity raises, the company is executing a self-funded growth strategy, which is a rare combination in the mining space.
• Exploration-Driven Upside on a Production Platform
  What sets Luca apart is its untapped potential. Over 90% of the resource base remains unexplored, yet recent drilling has already delivered discoveries, including a new gold-silver-zinc zone beneath Campo Morado’s ore body and a high-grade brecciated gold zone at Tahuehueto. With infrastructure in place and a cash-flow engine behind it, Luca’s exploration isn’t speculative — it’s strategic, with near-mine extensions that could directly impact production and valuation.
• Mid-Tier Ambitions Structured to Deliver
  Luca’s two operating mines in Mexico are backed by $500 million in infrastructure, a significantly de-risked capital profile, and a focused management team with a proven operational track record. With debt already cut by 50%, the company is targeting full repayment by mid-2026, without dilution. Meanwhile, CEO Dan Barnholden has made it clear that the path to 200,000 AuEq ounces and mid-tier status will include both organic growth and smart M&A. The building blocks for that are already in place.

Interview with Kinvestor Report

• The story behind the Scottsdale Capital Event Top Picks — and what sets them apart
• The caliber of investors who attend these exclusive, sold-out events
• How today’s macroeconomic forces are shaping gold and the broader commodities market

Next Event

Bermuda Capital Event
June 6-8, 2025 

CEM is proud to return to Bermuda for the 2nd Annual Capital Event, at the iconic Fairmont Hamilton Princess & Beach Club. Set against the backdrop of island luxury, this exclusive event connects high-growth companies across diverse sectors including resource, technology, biotech, and special situations with leading capital markets professionals through curated one-on-one meetings. From boardroom breakthroughs to beachfront deal-making, Bermuda 2025 promises a sun-soaked summit that’s a premier platform for discovery, dialogue, and new opportunities.

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Fabian Dawson