Copper has spent much of 2026 breaking records, confounding forecasts, and reminding investors just how quickly a commodity market can change when mine supply gets tight.

Now, as the year moves into its final stretch, the question is no longer simply how high copper can go. The more important question is how long the world can keep increasing copper consumption without bringing significantly more new supply into production.

Copper has climbed from around US$9,000 a tonne last year to record levels above US$14,500 in 2026. After consolidating between roughly US$12,000 and US$14,000 for much of the middle of the year, prices moved back toward record territory in August as tight supply collided with continuing demand from electrification, power-grid expansion, and AI-related infrastructure.

But the rally has also left copper vulnerable to sharp swings. The structural case remains bullish, but the price path into the final months of 2026 is far less certain.

J.P. Morgan Global Research expects copper to reach US$14,800 a tonne in the fourth quarter of 2026, driven by tight mine supply, sulphur shortages, industrial demand, and uncertainty around U.S. tariffs. Citigroup is more aggressive. One analyst sees copper at US$15,000 a tonne by year end, with a possible move toward US$17,000 if manufacturing improves or demand from data centres, the energy transition, and strategic stockpiling comes in stronger than expected.

Other forecasts remain more restrained. Goldman Sachs has projected an average of US$12,650 a tonne for 2026, while the World Bank forecast US$12,000 and UBS put copper at US$13,000 by December.

That wide spread in forecasts signals that copper is entering the final months of 2026 with strong underlying support, but also with enough uncertainty around China, inventories, tariffs, the U.S. dollar, and mine output to keep volatility high.

China remains central to both sides of the equation. A weaker Chinese property or manufacturing cycle could reduce demand for refined copper. But China’s rapid expansion in smelting capacity is also intensifying competition for copper concentrate, the partially processed ore that smelters turn into refined metal.

That squeeze on concentrate is a powerful indication that the copper industry’s immediate constraint is not a shortage of furnaces, but a shortage of new mine supply.

Sulphur and sulphuric acid have added another complication. Sulphuric acid is a key input in copper leaching, including solvent extraction and operations used to produce copper cathode. The International Energy Agency estimates that more than 15% of global primary copper output relies on sulphuric-acid leaching, leaving operations in Chile and the Democratic Republic of Congo particularly exposed to higher acid prices and supply disruptions.

These pressures are helping keep the near-term market tight. But beyond the noise around inventories, tariffs, and input costs, the longer-term picture is much clearer.

S&P Global projects global copper demand will rise about 50% to 42 million tonnes by 2040, from roughly 28 million tonnes in 2025. Its analysis points to a potential 10-million-tonne annual supply shortfall by 2040 if new production does not keep pace.

The International Energy Agency reaches a similar conclusion. In its Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026, the Agency estimates that supply from existing mines and the current advanced project pipeline could meet only about 75% of projected primary copper requirements in 2035.

The forecast does not mean the world is destined to run out of copper. The gap could narrow as more deposits are developed, recycling expands, and technology reduces copper use in some applications. The problem is that all of those solutions take time, while demand continues to grow.

That makes the real challenge less about finding copper and more about turning known discoveries into operating mines quickly enough to keep pace.

And that is where the bottlenecks begin.

New copper projects face declining grades, deeper deposits, high capital costs, infrastructure requirements, long permitting cycles, environmental scrutiny, community and Indigenous engagement, water and power constraints, and the need to secure financing and offtake agreements.

S&P Global estimates that a copper mine can take about 17 years to move from discovery to production, leaving limited scope for early-stage exploration projects to solve a supply problem emerging within the next decade.

That development gap is putting a premium on copper projects that are already sufficiently advanced to offer a credible route toward production.

Faraday Copper Corp. (TSX:FDY) is one of them. Its Copper Creek project in Arizona already has a defined resource and extensive drilling history, while the proposed acquisition of BHP’s neighbouring San Manuel property could add significant scale, private land, and access to existing road, rail, gas, and power infrastructure.

Together, the assets would give Faraday a larger U.S. copper platform in a proven mining jurisdiction, with a staged development plan that could begin with copper cathode production before expanding into sulphide and underground mining.

“When you put Copper Creek and San Manuel together, they have the potential to become the fourth-largest copper project in the United States, with close to 20 billion pounds of copper,” said Paul Harbidge, Faraday’s President and CEO.

The company says the combined properties could create an opportunity to prioritize copper cathode production as the first stage of development, before moving into open-pit sulphide material and eventually underground mining.

“We’ve got the opportunity for near-term copper production, producing cathode and delivering that directly into the U.S. supply chain.”

Faraday’s development pathway has been reflected in its share price.

The company’s TSX-listed shares have climbed sharply in 2026 as copper prices strengthened, drilling advanced, and the San Manuel transaction took shape. Faraday closed at C$5.22 on Sept. 4, up about 91% since the start of the year and nearly 273% over the past 12 months, giving the company a market capitalization of about C$1.54 billion.

The shares traded as high as C$6.69 in June as investors assigned greater value to Faraday’s resource scale, Arizona location, and potential role in supplying the U.S. market, where tariff uncertainty around refined-copper imports has added to the strategic appeal of domestic supply.

That investor appetite is beginning to spill further down the copper development curve.

At CEM’s Muskoka Capital Event later this month, several companies will be pitching projects at different stages of the copper cycle, from historic-resource redevelopment to large-scale exploration and early discovery.

They include Ameriwest Critical Metals Inc. (CSE: AWCM), which is advancing its Bornite copper-gold-silver project in Oregon; Viridian Metals Inc. (CSE: VRDN), which is drilling its Kraken copper-rich magmatic sulphide system in Labrador; and Sankamap Metals Inc. (CSE: SCU), which is exploring the Kuma and Fauro copper-gold projects in the Solomon Islands.

Other companies giving investors exposure to the copper theme in Muskoka will be Total Metals Corp. (TSXV: TT), a polymetallic explorer with copper, zinc, gold, and silver at its Electrolode project in northwestern Ontario; Omega Pacific Resources Inc. (CSE: OMGA), which is primarily gold-focused but also has copper-gold exploration potential at its Williams property in B.C.’s Toodoggone district; and Spartan Metals Corp. (TSXV: W), whose Nevada critical-minerals portfolio includes copper alongside its core tungsten, silver, and rubidium focus.

“Investors coming to the Muskoka event understand the copper story. What they want to know now is which companies have the scale, the jurisdiction, and the project quality to take advantage of it,” said Ryan Iverson, CEM’s portfolio manager.

CEM will wrap up its 2026 season in Minett, Ontario, bringing together about 150 investors and company executives for three days of meetings, deal-making and new investment opportunities. This gathering runs September 25 to 27 at the JW Marriott Rosseau Muskoka Resort & Spa, capping a busy year of connecting capital with emerging companies.

From Muskoka, attention turns to 2027, with CEM preparing another full season of curated capital events focused on building new investor relationships, showcasing emerging companies, and creating fresh investment opportunities.

Warm Regards and Happy Investing,

Fabian Dawson

Each week, CEM Partner and Portfolio Manager, Ryan Iverson, spotlights the ideas and companies sparking investor interest form emerging growth stories to the Top Pick featured across CEM’s Capital Events. This series brings real insights from the annotators shaping tomorrow’s markets and reveals where investors are finding the next breakout opportunities.

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